Thaindian News

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) — Tropical Depression Seven formed in the eastern Atlantic on late Wednesday morning and is expected to become a hurricane later this week, forecasters said.

Forecasters at the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center had been following the system since early Monday when it emerged off the African coast since. Since then, it slowly became more organized and eventually developed into a tropical depression on Tuesday.

“The area of disturbed weather that moved off the west coast of Africa two days ago and passed south of the Cape Verde Islands yesterday has become better organized and is now Tropical Depression Seven,” said forecaster Avila. “The depression has a large cyclonic envelope with well-defined cyclonically-curved convective bands, and an established upper-level outflow in the western semicircle.”

As of 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), the tropical depression was located about 690 kilometers (430 miles) west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. It is moving toward the west near 28 kilometers (17 miles) per hour. “This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two,” Avila said.

Maximum sustained winds of the storm are near 55 kilometers (35 miles) per hour, with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later on Tuesday, and a hurricane within days.

“The depression will likely become a tropical storm later today and there is unusually warm water over the tropical Atlantic,” Avila explained. “The shear is forecast to remain low for the next 2 to 3 days. These conditions would favor a gradual strengthening and even despite the small increase in shear at days 4 and 5, these conditions are favorable for intensification.”

While its future path is still extremely uncertain, the storm is currently forecast to head in the direction of Puerto Rico. As of Tuesday, no land is currently being affected.

If the tropical storm does strengthen into a tropical storm, and eventually a hurricane, it will be given the name Earl by forecasters. The last time a tropical cyclone was named Earl was in August 2004, when Tropical Storm Earl impacted the island country of Grenada but caused no confirmed casualties.

Tropical Depression Seven is not the only storm currently in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Danielle is located about 1145 kilometers (710 miles) east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Danielle is currently a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 140 kilometers (85 miles) per hour. And while Danielle is no threat to land at this point, the British overseas island of Bermuda is expected to be hit by a part of the storm on Sunday.

On Tuesday, forecasters with Weather Service International (WSI) slightly adjusted its outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, but said it still expects a ‘very active’ season.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1st and will end on November 30. So far, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen three tropical depressions, two tropical storms, and two hurricanes.

In its latest tropical update for 2010, WSI said it expects 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, which is category three or greater. The numbers are well above the long-term averages between 1950 and 2009, which is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. However, Tuesday’s update is a slight decrease from the June forecast that predicted 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Additionally, WSI’s hurricane landfall forecasting model - developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter - continues to suggest that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

“Although the season hasn’t had a record-breaking start, historically warm tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should mean that the upcoming three months will be very active,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “Slow starts during emerging La Nina events are par for the course. Over the last seven tropical seasons where a transition to La Nina occurred, 85% of all named storms occurred after August 16. This means we are still very, very early in the season.”

More importantly, Crawford said, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain at record warm levels, even warmer than during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season which saw a record number of storms: 31 depressions, 28 tropical storms and 15 hurricanes.

“While the early part of the season has been hampered by small destructive pockets of wind shear and widespread dry air, likely parting gifts from the recent strong El Nino event, the atmosphere is now quickly becoming more favorable for tropical development,” Dr. Crawford added. “We have reduced our numbers a bit to account for the lagged start, but are still just as bullish as ever on the remainder of the season.”

Crawford also indicated that the Northeastern coast of the United States has an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. “Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that the coastline from the Outer Banks to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, relative to the normal rates, which are, admittedly, quite small. Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.”