Obama holds double-digit lead over McCain

June 25th, 2008 - 10:11 pm ICT by IANS  

Washington, June 25 (IANS) With four months to go for the US presidential election, likely Democratic nominee Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over rival Republican John McCain, a new opinion poll suggests. The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of registered voters shows Obama holding a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent.

But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama’s lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator had a 15 point lead.

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an eight point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN polling director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted,” Holland said.

“Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June 1988; Bush won by seven.

“Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June,” Holland noted.

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