African dust storms forecast may help predict hurricanesMay 24th, 2008 - 2:35 pm ICT by admin
Washington, May 24 (ANI): A scientist has suggested that forecasting African dust storms might help in predicting severity of the hurricane season.
Researchers in the University of Wisconsin-Madisons Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) in the US reported earlier this year that African dust storms may dampen hurricanes by cooling sea surface temperature of the tropical Atlantic.
Now, CIMSS scientist Amato Evan is extending this work, offering a dust storm activity forecast as a tool to help predict severity of the upcoming hurricane season.
Based on patterns of precipitation in Africa during the past year, Evan predicts a moderate level of dust storm activity this summer.
We have a computer model that takes the dust forecast and tries to estimate how much that dust storm activity will cool the ocean, said Evan. There is not likely to be an anomalously large warming or cooling (of ocean temperatures) due to dust storm activity, he added.
The dust originates in the Sahara Desert, where windstorms loft particles and carry them west over the Atlantic. High levels of airborne dust reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the ocean, lowering sea surface temperatures and, generally, hurricane probability.
In contrast, low dust years correlate with higher ocean temperatures and conditions more conducive to hurricane formation.
Warmer waters also contribute to storm severity.
If you have really warm water, its more likely a hurricane could reach category 5, said Evan.
For example, the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season had below-average dust storm activity, very warm sea surface temperatures and an unprecedented four hurricanes that reached category 5, the highest classification.
For this year, Evans models predict that dust will cool the Atlantic by about 1.1 degrees Celsius, very close to the average effect of dust on the ocean temperature during the past 27 years.
According to Evan, this amount of cooling alone is not likely to trigger especially high or low hurricane activity.
In the future, Evan hopes to be able to use dust forecasts to predict large peaks or drops in Atlantic Ocean temperatures that may influence tropical storm activity.
Now that the dataset is over a quarter of a century long, we finally have enough information that we can do this, he said. (ANI)
- Tropical Depression Seven forms in the eastern Atlantic, set to become hurricane - Aug 25, 2010
- Airborne dust reduction linked with Atlantic Ocean warming - Mar 28, 2009
- Hurricane Irene weakens slightly as it marches toward North Carolina - Aug 26, 2011
- Bermuda cancels tropical storm warning as Gert turns to the northeast - Aug 16, 2011
- More than 800,000 without power as Hurricane Irene slams Puerto Rico - Aug 22, 2011
- Tropical Storm Eugene forms in the Pacific, no threat to land - Jul 31, 2011
- Tropical Storm Lee forms in the Gulf of Mexico, heads for Louisiana - Sep 03, 2011
- Tropical depression forms in the far eastern Atlantic, may threaten the Caribbean - Aug 29, 2011
- Now, model to predict hurricanes this season - Jun 02, 2010
- New depression prompts tropical storm warnings in the Caribbean - Aug 21, 2012
- Tropical storm Beatriz forms off the Pacific coast of Mexico; hurricane watch issued - Jun 20, 2011
- Tropical Storm Lisa forms in the far eastern Atlantic - Sep 21, 2010
- CSU scientists say more hurricanes expected in Atlantic season - Jun 02, 2010
- Tropical depression forms in the western Caribbean Sea, heads for Honduras - Aug 19, 2011
- WMO: Moderate to strong La Nina to continue into 2011 - Oct 11, 2010
Tags: african dust storms, airborne dust, category 5, computer model, cooperative institute, dust storm, hurricane formation, hurricane probability, hurricane season, madisons, meteorological satellite studies, moderate level, ocean temperature, ocean temperatures, sahara desert, sea surface temperature, sea surface temperatures, storm activity, warm sea, warmer waters