Thaindian News

New Delhi, Nov 20 (IANS) With US backing, Pakistan is elbowing out others in the region to become a central player in Afghanistan, an expert says, adding this can only cause more instability.

“The US has increasingly become receptive to Pakistan’s refrain of reducing the Indian footprint as a quid pro quo for (its) cooperation,” scholar Arun Sahgal says.

Writing in the latest issue “Jindal Journal of International Affairs”, Sahgal quoted American General Stanley McChrystal as saying that even New Delhi’s developmental role in Kabul was hurting Pakistan.

“Thus he showed an implicit understanding that India’s pursuance of interests and expansion of role beyond the developmental activities (worth nearly $2 billion) will be counterproductive to the overall effort as it will undermine Pakistani assistance, which is considered vital.

“The harsh reality is that Pakistan is becoming a central player to the exclusion of other regional actors,” Sahgal added. “This trend is unlikely to lead to a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.”

Sahgal is a joint director at the Institute of National Security Studies and Visiting Fellow at the Vivekananda Kendra International.

He is also founder director of the Office of Net Assessment, Indian Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), created to undertake long-term strategic assessments.

Sahgal pointed out that despite declarations of involving regional stakeholders as one of the planks of the US Af-Pak strategy, “nothing very much has been done by the US to move towards this goal”.

The Western coalition, Sahgal said, “has allowed Pakistan to shape the future discourse in Afghanistan, something it may not be able to deliver upon.

“This does not augur well for strategic stability in the region and may end up undermining all that has been achieved in nearly a decade of struggle against terrorism…

“What is important from Indian perspective is that despite having an excellent relationship with the Afghan government and undertaking sterling development projects, New Delhi is being sidelined.”

Sahgal said that by laying down a timeline for drawdown of forces from Afghanistan, the Obama administration had engendered dynamics, with every competitor attempting to claim his own strategic space.

The biggest mistake, he said, was the West’s over-reliance on Pakistan, to put out the fires in Afghanistan.

“While the Pakistani establishment thinks it can control Taliban after the departure of the Western coalition, the Taliban is more likely to act autonomously, throwing more challenges to Pakistan, the region itself and the international community.”

Sahgal said the time had come for India “to consider options other than the only soft option of development assistance to Afghanistan.

“Regional consensus with Iran, Russia, talking to China, as well as opening back channels to Pakistan and establishing contracts with important domestic players in Afghanistan are imperative.

“India should also become proactive in defining its core strategic interest in Afghanistan — that it should never be allowed to become a haven of terrorists (who) would embark on a regional or global jehad.”