Stratfor warns of ‘mob fury against Americans’ in Pak if Davis is released from detention

February 18th, 2011 - 6:01 pm ICT by ANI  

Washington, Feb 18(ANI): There is a “very real possibility” that double murder-accused US official Raymond Davis’s release from detention in Lahore can spark mob violence in Pakistan, a US-based Global Intelligence Forecast Organisation has warned.

Stratfor Global Intelligence based this possibility on “the current tension between the United States and Pakistan, public sentiment in Pakistan regarding U.S. security contractors and the possibility of groups like JuD and JeI attempting to take advantage of the situation.”

“Even if the Pakistani government does try to defuse the situation, there are other parties who will attempt to stir up violence,” it said, adding that if the protests took place, they could be expected to be similar to those “that followed the Mohammed cartoon case, i.e., they will cut across ethnic and sectarian lines and present a widespread threat.”

In such a scenario, any person identified as a US national by such an angry mob could quickly find himself or herself in dire danger, it noted, saying that while Americans working for the US government could expect to have some security assistance in getting back to the embassy or to another secure location, non-officials might be left to fend for themselves, especially if they were not registered with the embassy.

“Once a mob attacks, there often is little that can be done - especially if the host government either cannot or will not take action to protect the facility being attacked. At that point, the focus should be on preventing injuries and saving lives - without regard to the physical property,” it added.

Stratfor pointed out that the best defence against such an uprising would be “to use good intelligence in order to learn about the protests in advance, to track them when they occur and then to evacuate personnel before they can be affected by the violence.”

“U.S. diplomatic facilities and business interests in Pakistan are almost certainly reviewing their contingency plans right now and planning for the worst-case scenario,” it added.

With the current tension between Pakistan and the US, there might not be much help coming when the next wave of unrest erupts, so keeping ahead of potential protests is critically important, Stratfor concluded. (ANI)

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