Thaindian News

The Obama visit to India (Part-I)

By Salim Haq

New Delhi, Dec 3 (ANI): The Wikileaks tsunami is yet to peak. It would, thus, be premature to comment on what impact they will ultimately have on Pakistan and the future of Indo-Pak and US-Pak relations. What has appeared so far has confirmed what Indians have been saying for a long time about Pakistan’s active sponsorship of terror groups as a tool of foreign policy.

For example, the then US Ambassador to Pakistan, Ann Patterson had concluded in September 2009 that ” there is no chance that Pakistan will view enhanced assistance levels in any field as sufficient compensation for abandoning support to these groups (terrorist groups), which it sees as an important part of its national security apparatus against India.”

Her prescription of reassessing US policies towards India to allay Pak fears was, much to Pakistan’s dismay, turned on its head by President Obama during his recent visit to India.

The Obama visit has been intensely debated in Pakistan. At least 5 issues have been highlighted that Pakistan sees as being favourable to India:

(i) Support to India’s candidature as a permanent member of the UNSC

(ii) US inability or reluctance to play a significant (i.e pro-Pakistan) role in moderating tensions between India and Pakistan

(iii) US prescription that that the Indo-Pak dialogue should progress from more easily soluble issues to addressing the most difficult problems.

(iv) US encouragement of India’s increased role in Afghanistan,

(v) Terrorist safe havens within Pakistan needed to be dismantled and the terrorists behind the Mumbai attacks be brought to justice

Pakistan has drawn some satisfaction that US $ 5 billion was promised prior to Obama’s visit to India. But, as has been pointed out, this aid has yet to be approved the US Congress which could attach conditions like Pakistan act against the Haqqani network, something that Pakistan has avoided doing so far.

At least three strands are notable in how the visit has been perceived:.

One are the jilted lovers, characterized largely by the Urdu media and the rabble rousing politicians. The argument is that Pakistan has been fighting America’s war, which has now spilled over into its own borders. It is waging a serious war against the likes of the TTP and other hardline Islamic groups in which over 3000 Army personnel and thousands of civilians have died since 2004. And yet, an ungrateful US has cozied up to arch enemy India. Thus, the US is no friend.

Further, Pakistan had the right to have high expectations from the US because of the sacrifices made. However, the end result was disappointment. Henceforth, Pakistan should have no expectations from the US. Instead, they should use the China card to keep India at bay.

The second are the straw clutchers - too much should not be read into the visit. After losing the House elections, a lame duck President Obama cannot force an agenda or decisions and the unipolar world is about to end. The US economy is in such bad shape that it needs Indian support in terms of concessions given to the US industry for jobs. The UNSC seat, symbolic though it may be, is in the distant future and is complicated to achieve.

In this version, the so-called strategic partnership between the US and India is doomed to failure. For one thing, India would not agree to be a US proxy against China. For another, India would pursue its own policy on Iran and Myanmar. Moreover, the US needs the cooperation of Pakistan in Afghanistan much more than it needs India’s.

A discordant note in this view is that given Obama’s silence on Kashmir, India could become more inflexible and less inclined to talk to Pakistan on Kashmir.

The third are the more sophisticated and nuanced analysts who feel that the US has established strategic relations with India which, in any case, had been developing for the last 20 years with bipartisan support of both the Republicans and Democrats. Indian strength is its economy, a factor that is becoming increasingly important.