Global warming might make Atlantic hurricanes rarerMay 19th, 2008 - 11:24 am ICT by admin
London, May 19 (ANI): A new study has suggested that hurricanes might become rarer in the Atlantic throughout the 21st century if the world continues to warm.
According to a report in Nature News, Thomas Knutson of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and colleagues carried out the study.
They used a regional climate model of the Atlantic basin to simulate the observed increase in hurricane activity between 1980 and 2006, on the basis of observed sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.
They then used two versions of the model, one assuming climate warming of 2.8oC by 2100, and one without warming, to estimate whether hurricane activity will continue to increase in the region as a result of human-induced climate change.
The study does not support the notion that rising greenhouse gases are causing an increase in tropical storm frequency, said Knutson.
Knutson and his team have estimated that overall, the number of hurricanes will decrease, with weaker storms feeling the greatest impacts. They predict a 27% drop in tropical storms, 18% fewer hurricanes and 8% fewer major hurricanes.
So, despite the fact that hurricane activity has increased dramatically in the Atlantic over the past 25 years, this trend will not continue until the end of the century under warmer conditions.
We cant simply extrapolate the trend from the past 25 years into the future, says co-author Issac Held, from NOAA.
The study focused primarily on changes in the number of hurricanes, but also projected a shift towards more intense storms and heavier rainfall events.
This largely concurs with recent work by Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.
Using a different type of model, Emanuel projected that global warming will result in fewer hurricanes globally, but that they will become more intense in some locations.
According to Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, The results suggest fewer tropical storms in the Atlantic, and this seems reasonable given everything else we know. (ANI)
- Global warming could lead to rise in powerful hurricanes - Jan 22, 2010
- Bermuda cancels tropical storm warning as Gert turns to the northeast - Aug 16, 2011
- More than 800,000 without power as Hurricane Irene slams Puerto Rico - Aug 22, 2011
- Tropical Storm Aletta forms far off Mexico's Pacific coast, no threat - May 15, 2012
- Tropical Storm Eugene forms in the Pacific, no threat to land - Jul 31, 2011
- Tropical Storm Katia forms in the far eastern Atlantic, set to become major hurricane - Aug 30, 2011
- Hurricane Katia strengthens into a major category four hurricane - Sep 06, 2011
- Category four hurricane Hilary could threaten Baja California - Sep 24, 2011
- Tropical storm Bret forms near the Bahamas, watch in effect - Jul 18, 2011
- Dry air could prevent Tropical Storm Katia from strengthening - Aug 31, 2011
- New depression prompts tropical storm warnings in the Caribbean - Aug 21, 2012
- Tropical Storm Lee forms in the Gulf of Mexico, heads for Louisiana - Sep 03, 2011
- Warming could unleash more violent storms, says study - Jul 11, 2012
- Tropical storm Cindy moving away from land - Jul 21, 2011
- Tropical Depression Seven forms in the eastern Atlantic, set to become hurricane - Aug 25, 2010
Tags: atlantic basin, atlantic hurricanes, atmospheric conditions, climate change, climate warming, climatologist, greenhouse gases, hurricane activity, hurricane expert, intense storms, kerry emanuel, knutson, massachusetts institute of technology, national oceanic and atmospheric administration, national oceanic and atmospheric administration noaa, rainfall events, regional climate model, sea surface temperatures, storm frequency, tropical storms