Listening to Sun may improve forecasts of solar flares
February 19th, 2010 - 2:12 pm ICT by ANISydney, Feb 19 (ANI): Scientists have come up with a new method that analyses sound waves generated by the Sun, which would help scientists forecast solar flares and promises to be twice as accurate as current models.
Solar flares can trigger disruptions and errors in GPS signals and other equipment receiving radio waves that bounce off or travel through the ionosphere - the layer of charged particles surrounding Earth’s atmosphere that gets kicked up by solar activity.
That’s a concern for activities requiring precision navigation, such as landing planes.
Solar flares can even affect power grids on Earth.
“You get this faster, twisting motion that then slows down to almost nothing and then the flare. It tells us how big the flare is going to be and that it’s coming - maybe a day or two in advance,” said Dr Alysha Reinard, a solar physicist with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
According to a report in ABC Science, Reinard and colleagues used archived solar seismic data collected by ground stations to look for correlations between motions in the magnetic fields and subsequent flares.
Analysis showed a pattern, and using it, the team accurately predicted up to half the flares that occurred between 2001 and 2007, the years the seismic data was available.
“That’s quite a bit higher that people had done before. The forecasting group is pretty excited about this,” said Reinard. “Hopefully we can get to a stage where it’s operational soon,” she added.
Dr Thomas Bogdan, who heads NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, said that forecasting flares is probably his team’s most difficult challenge because the highly energised, magnetized photons released during a solar flare move at the speed of light, making the 193-million-mile journey to Earth in just eight minutes.
“When it’s here, it’s here. There’s no way to get any more advanced knowledge,” said Bogdan.
Current forecasting models rely heavily on comparing observations of the Sun’s active regions with historical data.
Forecasters then issue probabilities, similar to hurricane warnings, that a flare of a certain magnitude will occur within 72, 48 and 24 hours. (ANI)
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Tags: abc science, alysha, gps signals, ionosphere, mile journey, national oceanic and atmospheric administration, noaa, power grids, precision navigation, radio waves, seismic data, solar activity, solar flare, solar flares, solar physicist, sound waves, space weather prediction, speed of light, thomas bogdan, weather prediction center
