Floods will become commonplace by 2080

January 9th, 2009 - 12:27 pm ICT by ANI  

London, Jan 9 (ANI): A new research has predicted that floods will become commonplace by the year 2080, especially across the UK.

The research, led by Dr Hayley Fowler, of Newcastle University, predicts that severe storms the likes of which currently occur every five to 25 years across the UK will become more common and more severe in a matter of decades.

Looking at extreme rainfall events, where rain falls steadily and heavily for between one and five days, the study predicts how the intensity of these storms may change in the future.

Dr Fowler found that across the UK, the amount of rain falling during one of these extreme events was likely to increase by up to 30 per cent by 2080.

This increase is most likely to occur in autumn, winter and spring when the ground is already saturated, posing the biggest threat of flooding.

Predicting how extreme rainfall might change many years in the future is very difficult because events can be quite localised, especially in the summer, explained Dr Fowler.

You only have to think about how difficult it is for the Met office to predict the weather two or three days in advance the overall picture for the country tends to stay the same but local weather patterns can change quite dramatically, he added.

According to Dr Fowler, By taking a much more detailed look at the results from different regional climate models, we have created a more accurate picture of how wet Britain will be by 2070.

What the data quite clearly shows is that were going to see far more of these extreme downpours in years to come, putting more and more homes at risk from flooding, particularly in autumn and winter months when the ground is already saturated, he added.

Dr Fowler, who worked on the study with Dr Marie Ekstrom from Exeter University, examined seasonal rainfall data from 13 Regional Climate Models for nine regions across the UK and used this to study the projected changes.

Consistent with global warming, the team found that as the air becomes warmer and is able to hold more moisture, Britain will get wetter.

In general, the study suggests larger changes to the intensity of short duration extreme rainfall events those lasting one or two days. Northern and western regions of the UK are predicted to be worst hit.

What our data does show is that floods are no longer going to be freak events. All 13 models we looked at predict increases in extreme rainfall in winter, autumn and spring by the 2080s although the percent increase varies, said Dr Fowler. (ANI)

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Posted in Health Science |