Clock ticking for Istanbul quake
March 13th, 2010 - 3:33 pm ICT by ANILondon, March 13 (ANI): Reports indicate that the clock is ticking for an earthquake to strike the city of Istanbul in Turkey.
The magnitude-6.1 earthquake that hit eastern Turkey on March 8 has provoked fresh concerns over whether Istanbul could be the next Turkish site to be hit by a major tremor - and whether it is adequately prepared should a quake strike.
According to data from the US Geological Survey, the epicentre of the recent quake was 70 kilometres from the city of Elaziq and about 625 kilometres east of Turkey’s capital, Ankara.
The earthquake toppled buildings and flattened homes, injuring at least 100 people and killing 41.
Turkey is criss-crossed by faults, produced by the African plate pressing into the Anatolian block.
Most of the country is being pushed and squeezed to the west between the North and East Anatolian faults.
The Elaziq earthquake is thought to have occurred on the East Anatolian fault.
The chances that the recent quake could itself trigger a tremor in Istanbul are slim, according to Ian Main, a seismologist at the University of Edinburgh, UK.
“The stress changes at these distances are too small to expect a significant triggering effect,” he told Nature News.
Nonetheless, the sprawling metropolis of Istanbul, with nearly 13 million inhabitants, has not been hit by a major quake since 1766.
A series of strong earthquakes has been progressing westwards along the North Anatolian fault - most recently at Izmit in 1999 - prompting scientists to worry that Istanbul is next in line.
According to Tom Parsons, a geophysicist with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program in Menlo Park, California, there is a 30-60 percent chance of a magnitude 7 or greater quake close to Istanbul in the next 25 years.
Tobias Hergert of Karlsruhe University, Germany, and Oliver Heidbach of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, also in Germany, published a study earlier this year suggesting that the strain accumulating along the North Anatolian fault might be released during several earthquakes rather than in one large rupture of the whole seismic gap.
But they added that Istanbul is still at risk of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake, depending on which fault segment ruptures. (ANI)
- California rattled by 3.6 earthquake - Aug 25, 2011
- Turkey quake toll reaches 279 - Oct 25, 2011
- Quake jolts Turkey - Jul 26, 2011
- Quake hits Taiwan - Nov 22, 2010
- 'Darwin Gap' quake may shake Chile once again - Jan 31, 2011
- Passenger ferry hijacked in Turkey (Lead) - Nov 12, 2011
- 1,000 feared killed as major quake jolts Turkey - Oct 23, 2011
- Mild Earthquake Hits San Francisco - Jan 08, 2011
- 5.7 magnitude earthquake in Kashmir - Mar 21, 2011
- Chronology of world's major quakes since 1900 - Mar 11, 2011
- Fukushima now more vulnerable to seismic risk - Feb 15, 2012
- Low intensity quake shakes Kashmir - May 10, 2012
- India lacks quake preparedness: Experts - Sep 21, 2011
- Three die as quake jolts Guatemala - Sep 20, 2011
- Researchers find no link between major earthquakes - Mar 28, 2011
Tags: capital ankara, earthquake hazards program, eastern turkey, german research centre, hergert, istanbul quake, karlsruhe university, london march, menlo park, menlo park california, north anatolian fault, seismologist, stress changes, tom parsons, university germany, university of edinburgh, university of edinburgh uk, us geological survey, usgs earthquake hazards, usgs earthquake hazards program