Washington, Nov 24 (IANS) Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can be stabilised only if the global economy collapses or society builds one nuclear power plant each day, says a new report.
“It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates,” says study leader Tim Garrett, associate professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Utah (U-U).

The study, based on the concept that physics can be used to characterise the evolution of civilisation, indicates that energy conservation or efficiency doesn’t really save energy, but instead spurs economic growth and accelerated energy consumption.

“Stabilisation of CO2 emissions at current rates will require approximately 300 gigawatts of new non-CO2 emitting power production capacity annually,” or “one new nuclear power plant (or equivalent) per day,” Garrett says.

Garrett says colleagues generally support his theory, while some economists are critical. One economist, who reviewed the study, wrote: “I am afraid the author will need to study harder before he can contribute.”

“I’m not an economist, and I am approaching the economy as a physics problem,” Garrett says. “I end up with a global economic growth model different than they have.”

Garrett treats civilisation like a “heat engine” that “consumes energy and does ‘work’ in the form of economic production, which then spurs it to consume more energy,” he says, according to an U-U release.

“If society consumed no energy, civilisation would be worthless,” he adds. “It is only by consuming energy that civilisation is able to maintain the activities that give it economic value.”

“This means that if we ever start to run out of energy, then the value of civilisation is going to fall and even collapse absent discovery of new energy sources,” says Garrett.

The report is slated for publication in the December issue of the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.