Solar cycles may help predict future floods and droughts
December 11th, 2008 - 2:16 pm ICT by ANI ( Leave a comment )
Washington, Dec 11 (ANI): A new research has suggested that solar cycles can help predict extreme climatic events like floods and droughts on Earth decades ahead of time.
Solar cycles are 11-year phases during which the suns activity ebbs and flows, accompanied by an increase in sunspots on the suns surface.
The cycles, which are driven by the suns magnetic turbulence, may influence weather systems on Earth, particularly the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a periodic climatic system associated with floods and droughts mostly in the Southern Hemisphere.
The sun is the engine of our climate, said lead study author Robert Baker, of the University of New England in Australia. Its like a vibrating stringits past vibrations can be used to predict future vibrations, he told National Geographic News.
Those vibrations are the cyclical twisting and untwisting of magnetic fields that cause the suns poles to flip at the start of each new cycle.
Longer magnetic cycles of about 90 years and 400 years are also found in astronomy records.
The Southern Oscillation Index, which measures the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system, seems to correspond with a 90-year sun cycle, Baker found.
For instance, the current index reading closely follows a trend observed in the 1920s.
If the current index continues to mimic the 1920s cycle, then 2009 is set to be another cool year relative to the 1990s, according to the research.
Periods of greater solar disturbances are associated with rainy periods, whereas a calmer sun dovetailed with times of drought in Australia, according to Baker.
According to Baker, data from the 1940s, coupled with astrophysicists calculations of future solar cycles, could predict droughts and floods as far off as 2030.
We can look into the future based on the past to make predictions 10 to 20 years ahead, he said.
El Nino and La Nina, which creates opposite climatic effects from El Nino, also affect North America.
That means long-range forecasting is possible for water availability in Mexico and the western United States, where droughts are often severe, Baker said. (ANI)
- 2010 - one of the two warmest years on record - Jul 01, 2011
- Top 10 global weather events in 2010 - Jan 14, 2011
- Mystery over Sun's missing sunspots over 11-year cycle solved - Mar 03, 2011
- El Nino drives Panama butterfly migrations - Oct 06, 2009
- Past regional cold and warm periods linked to natural climate drivers - Nov 27, 2009
- Indian Ocean climate event occurring more frequently due to global warming - Jan 03, 2010
- Weather played key factor in England's historic Ashes victory, claims research - Jan 08, 2011
- Huge parts of world drying up due to land 'evapotranspiration': Study - Oct 11, 2010
- Solar activity has big impact on earth's climate - Jul 18, 2009
- Meteorologists say that 'La Nina' is over - Jun 10, 2011
- Changes in sun's conveyor belt could be behind prolonged solar cycle - Aug 04, 2010
- El Nino may be overshadowed by its brother in central Pacific due to global warming - Sep 24, 2009
- Powerful solar storm disrupts communications - Feb 20, 2011
- Intense solar activity in 2012 will trip mobile phones, GPS - Dec 12, 2010
- NASA''s early warning system predicted outbreak of deadly virus in northeast Africa - Feb 18, 2009
Tags: climatic effects, climatic system, drought in australia, el nino and la nina, el nino southern oscillation, floods and droughts, magnetic cycles, magnetic turbulence, national geographic news, nino and la nina, nino southern oscillation, rainy periods, research periods, solar cycles, solar disturbances, southern hemisphere, southern oscillation index, sun cycle, university of new england, weather systems