Mexico’s 2011 growth outlook improves

December 2nd, 2011 - 12:18 pm ICT by IANS  

Mexico City, Dec 2 (IANS/EFE) Analysts have raised their growth outlook for the Mexican economy, the central bank said Thursday.

According to Banco de Mexico’s November survey of financial service firms, analysts expect Mexico’s gross domestic product to grow 3.87 percent for the year, up from their October forecast of 3.72 percent.

It was the first time since June that the analysts had raised their forecast for Mexico’s 2011 GDP growth relative to their previous month’s expectations.

They also predicted growth of 3.25 percent for 2012, virtually unchanged from October.

Banco de Mexico interviews analysts from 25 private banks and consultancy firms each month for its survey.

The experts expect year-end inflation to come in at 3.36 percent and for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to stand at 3.22 percent.

Survey respondents cited weak growth in foreign markets and global financial turmoil, the absence of necessary structural changes in Mexico and public safety concerns as the biggest threats to the country’s economy over the next six months.

They said they expect 591,000 jobs to be created in Mexico this year and 515,000 in 2012.

Quizzed about their exchange-rate forecast, the analysts predicted the peso will end the year at 13.32 to the dollar, compared with 12.96 pesos to the greenback in the October survey.

Finally, they said they expected total foreign direct investment flows to Mexico in 2011 and 2012 of $19.17 billion and $19.96 billion, respectively.

The central bank, meanwhile, is forecasting the Mexican economy will expand at a clip of between 3.5 percent and 4 percent in 2011.


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