Thaindian News

New Delhi, April 19 (IANS) In what could be a breather for farmers and common people, India’s monsoon is likely to be normal with 98 percent of the expected rainfall, Science and Technology Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said here Tuesday.

“India Meteorological Department’s long range forecast for the 2011 southwest monsoon season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal, which is 96 to 104 percent of the long period average,” Bansal said.

“There is very low probability for the season’s rainfall to be deficient, which is below 90 percent, or excess, which is above 110 percent. Quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98 percent of the long period average with a model error of five percent,” he added.

According to the IMD, the factors affecting southwest monsoon seem to be normal as of now.

When asked about the expected dates of onset of monsoon, Bansal said: “It is too early to say anything but normally, the southwest monsoon onsets on Kerala on June 1 and reaches the (national) capital by June 29.”

IMD will update the forecast in June as part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.

Replying to a question about the unusually cool April this year, IMD director general Ajit Tyagi, said: “The temperature gradient is not building up as of now but temperature is expected to rise in the coming days.”