`Eurozone crisis to dent Canadian growth’
January 19th, 2012 - 3:38 pm ICT by IANS ( Leave a comment )Ottawa, Jan 19 (IANS) The Eurozone debt crisis will curb Canada’s economic growth by 0.6 percent this year, or $9.89 billion, but it’s a smaller damage compared to the expected 1 percent loss in the world’s GDP caused by the turmoil, the Bank of Canada said.
“Deteriorating economic conditions in Europe have a relatively modest impact on the foreign activity measure, given Canada’s limited direct trade links with Europe, and will affect Canadian exports primarily through their spillover effects on US private domestic demand,” the central bank said in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report Wednesday.
However, the bank added that the crisis in Europe is expected to have an indirect impact on the Canadian economy through its implications for financial conditions, confidence and global commodity prices, reported Xinhua.
“A modest recovery is expected to begin in the euro area in late 2012 as financing conditions begin to improve and confidence gradually recovers in response to the implementation of required policy measures and structural reforms,” it said.
The bank made its prediction based on the assumption that the European crisis will be contained by the measures taken by the European Central Bank, Germany and France.
The bank predicted that Canadian economy grew by 2.4 percent in 2011, higher than the its previous forecast of 2.1 percent. Then the economy will subdue somewhat to 2 percent this year and will regain some momentum to reach 2.8 percent in 2013.
Aside from the Eurozone crisis, the bank said the country’s economy is threatened by domestic factors such as consumer debt and the volatility of the real estate market, which led some economists and business analysts to believe Canada is in a “housing bubble” spurred by historic low mortgage interest rates and speculation.
“High household debt levels in Canada could lead to a sharper-than-expected deceleration in household spending,” it said.
It warned that “if there were a sudden weakening in the Canadian housing sector, it could have sizable spillover effects on other areas of the economy”.
The central bank boosted its 2012 forecast for the United States to 2 percent from 1.7 percent, assuming the US Congress’s recent two-month extension of payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits will be extended through the end of 2012.
- Canada holds bank rate at 1 percent - Jan 18, 2012
- Bank of Canada holds lending rate at one percent - Dec 07, 2011
- Recession possible in Finland: Official - Dec 16, 2011
- World Bank sharply lowers global economic growth rate (Lead) - Jan 18, 2012
- `Rising risk of Eurozone-US recession threaten Asian economies' - Dec 06, 2011
- Europe agrees to 1 trillion euro fund for new bailout plan - Oct 27, 2011
- Spain's economy will shrink in 2012: IMF - Jan 25, 2012
- South Korea's central bank lowers 2012 growth outlook - Dec 09, 2011
- Mexican central bank warns of risks arising from Europe, US - Oct 27, 2011
- South Korean watchdog to focus on market stability in 2012 - Dec 30, 2011
- `Asia has ample room to fight eurozone turmoil spillovers' - Jan 31, 2012
- Guard against crisis contagion, IMF tells Latin America - Feb 03, 2012
- Federal Reserve lowers US economic forecasts - Jul 15, 2010
- US forecasts slow economic growth in coming quarters - Feb 16, 2012
- Greece has upset calculations, let it not multiply: Manmohan - Nov 03, 2011
Tags: bank germany, bank of canada, business analysts, canadian economy, canadian exports, commodity prices, debt crisis, debt levels, deceleration, domestic factors, global commodity, household debt, household spending, housing bubble, indirect impact, low mortgage, monetary policy report, mortgage interest rates, policy measures, spillover effects